In this Discussion
- Chris January 20
- Ridersonthestorm33 January 21
- SLIPPERGOLDEN January 22
Who's Online
Bunbury 21/01 Preview & Selections
West Australian Racing
Chris
5,734 posts
Race 1: Australia Day at Bunbury Maiden (1100m) - 2:09pm
A tricky start to the day with a few debutants and several scratchings. With the speed influence of Ducat and Miss Tickle Boom removed, the map opens up significantly. Dancing Spirit looks the obvious class runner here. William Pike jumps on for the first time following an eye-catching second at Albany. She settled well back there and charged home; with the smaller field today, she shouldn't have to navigate as much traffic. The danger is Dark Opal, who is as honest as the day is long. She has placed in 40% of her starts and maps to get the run of the race from the inside draw.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Dancing Spirit ($3.30)
| Selection | Danger |
| Dancing Spirit: Significant jockey upgrade to Pike and peak fitness. | Dark Opal: Veteran of the maiden ranks who is rarely far away. |
Framed Market (105%)
Dancing Spirit: $2.80
Maggie Jean: $4.50
Dark Opal: $5.00
Mahler's Melody: $10.00
Working Class Girl: $12.00
Field: $21.00+
Race 2: Cuprum Distillery Maiden (1400m) - 2:44pm
This is the "good thing" of the day if you believe in the drop-down logic. Morf comes out of a 3yo Plate at Ascot where he led and was only nabbed late. That is significantly better form than what he faces here. He is a "sixty-percenter" for place-getters and with Holly Nottle claiming 2kg, he is effectively carrying only 54.5kg against some very limited types. Midnight Star is the clear danger; she is a "seventy-five percenter" (3 places from 4 starts) and Clint Johnston-Porter is a master at timing the run on this track.
Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - Morf ($2.90)
| Selection | Danger |
| Morf: Metropolitan class horse dropping to a provincial maiden. | Midnight Star: High place percentage and great trainer/jockey combo. |
Framed Market (105%)
Morf: $2.10
Midnight Star: $5.00
Magic Carats: $6.50
Xelcimus: $12.00
Field: $26.00+
Race 3: Magic Millions Handicap (1000m) - 3:20pm
This race is a classic match-up between the "imported" class and the local speed. Excelindeed makes his WA debut after a very successful stint in Victoria, including a win at Seymour and placing at Sandown Hillside. He is a high-quality individual who has placed in 62% of his starts. Despite the big weight, the class difference should be telling. Earl It Is is the local hope who won well here last start, but he would need to find another gear to beat a fit Excelindeed.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Excelindeed ($1.90)
| Selection | Danger |
| Excelindeed: Victorian form is simply superior to this grade. | Earl It Is: Last start winner who loves the Bunbury 1000m. |
Framed Market (105%)
Excelindeed: $1.75
Earl It Is: $3.80
Makwell Smart: $11.00
So Immaculate: $15.00
Field: $34.00+
Race 4: Bunbury Volkswagen Handicap (1200m) - 3:50pm
Time to look for some value. Just Gifted is our "fifty-percenter" here, having placed in half of her lifetime starts. She was a winner two starts back at York and her third last start at this track was full of merit. She should be at peak fitness now. Chino La Diva is the class runner with a massive rating of 66, but she has to lug 64kg (even with the claim). That is a lot of lead to carry over the final 200m.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - Just Gifted ($4.00)
| Selection | Danger |
| Just Gifted: Consistent mare who hits the 50% criteria and maps well. | Chino La Diva: Class horse of the field but weighted to the hilt. |
Framed Market (105%)
Chino La Diva: $3.00
Just Gifted: $3.80
If I Din Havadime: $6.00
Romance Calling: $11.00
Field: $17.00+
Comments
Race 5: Swan Draught Handicap (1200m) - 4:20pm
The Wizard of the West, William Pike, hops on Ripper Rupert, and the market has reacted accordingly. He is a talented 3-year-old who won here two starts back. However, the value lies with Girls On Fire. She is a model of consistency (66% place rate) and has a tactical advantage over the favorite by being able to sit closer to the speed. At $3.80, she represents a better betting proposition than the short favorite.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - Girls On Fire ($3.80)
Bomb: Play Dice ($8.00) - Has a massive motor and if the speed is on early, she will be the one whistling home late.
Framed Market (105%)
Ripper Rupert: $2.80
Girls On Fire: $3.20
Too Much Talk: $7.50
Play Dice: $9.00
Field: $21.00+
Race 6: TABtouch Scan Your Bet Handicap (1400m) - 4:55pm
This is the toughest race on the card. We are going with Setagaya based on the 2nd-up statistics and the booking of Pike. She wasn't disgraced at Albany first-up and usually improves sharply with a run under her belt. Antz Pantz Baby is the main threat; she was very good when second here over the same distance last start and she will likely be the one they have to catch in the straight.
Recommended Bet: Bet (1 Unit) - Setagaya ($3.40)
Framed Market (105%)
Setagaya: $3.20
Elvira Star: $3.60
Antz Pantz Baby: $5.50
Bella Violetta: $12.00
Field: $21.00+
Race 7: Hyoketsu Lawn Party On Sale Handicap (1675m) - 5:30pm
We close the day with a very competitive mile. Shazair is the "track specialist" having won twice at this course and distance, including a gritty victory last start. She is a "fifty-percenter" and Lucy Fiore knows her inside out. Oisin is the saver bet; he has placed in 53% of his starts and is the type of horse that puts himself in the race and refuses to give up. He should be ready to peak now.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - Shazair ($2.60)
Framed Market (105%)
Shazair: $2.40
Azabelle: $3.50
Oisin: $5.00
Bird On A Wire: $8.50
Field: $15.00+
Summary of Best Bets
Rodent likes this post.
Wayne’s first up record not the best though and Mavis a quintessential battler. I’ll go small e/w both.
Ridersonthestorm33, Rodent likes this post.
SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.