In this Discussion
- Chris February 7
- DamienWyer February 7
- Muldoon February 9
- Ridersonthestorm33 February 7
- Rodent February 7
- silky February 7
- thefalcon February 7
Who's Online
Ascot 07/02 Preview & Selections
West Australian Racing
Chris
5,734 posts
Race 1: MRS MAC'S HANDICAP (1100m)
The scratching of Ripper Rupert has turned this into a match race between the two speedsters. JUST WALTER JOHN is the one they have to beat. He controlled the race from the front at Pinjarra and won with plenty in hand. He’s a "seventy-percenter" in terms of career consistency and Patrick Carbery knows exactly how to rated him to the minute. The main danger is SOUND OF SPEED, who gets a vital 3kg claim with Holly Nottle. He was outclassed in a 3YO Plate last time but dropping back to a 57+ handicap is exactly what the doctor ordered.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — JUST WALTER JOHN ($2.15)
| Selection | Comment |
| JUST WALTER JOHN | Natural leader who will love the 9m rail. |
| SOUND OF SPEED | Huge weight relief via the claim; the logical danger. |
Framed Market (105%)
JUST WALTER JOHN: $2.10
SOUND OF SPEED: $3.50
BEYOND MEASURE: $4.80
DEEPEST DESIRE: $12.00
DOUBLE THE FUN: $15.00
NICE SORT: $40.00
Race 2: GLENROY CHAFF PLATE (1000m)
Betting on two-year-old's is often like trying to predict the weather in a month's time, but RUN RUPERT RUN looks a cut above the debutants. His trial at Belmont was professional; he jumped, traveled, and put them away without being asked for a maximum effort. Chris Parnham sticks, which is always a signal of intent. STERN EMPIRE is the saver. She was only narrowly beaten by Star Martini in a recent trial and has the benefit of having seen the Ascot straight under race conditions before.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — RUN RUPERT RUN ($3.50)
Bomb: SIPPA SPRITZ ($8.50) — Won her trial nicely and could surprise at odds if the favorites over-race.
| Selection | Comment |
| RUN RUPERT RUN | Topped his trial easily; looks ready to go. |
| STERN EMPIRE | Improved trial since her debut; blinkers go on. |
Framed Market (105%)
RUN RUPERT RUN: $3.20
WICKIUP: $4.50
STAR MARTINI: $5.00
STERN EMPIRE: $5.50
SIPPA SPRITZ: $9.00
Others: $15.00+
Race 3: STEVIE LITTON 60TH BIRTHDAY HANDICAP (1000m)
SANTANOVA is arguably the best-weighted horse on the card. He has an exceptional record at this track and distance (5 starts for 2 wins) and is coming off a determined victory over 1000m here three weeks ago. He’s a tactical horse who can sit just off the speed and pounce. CELESTIAL STORM is the obvious threat with William Pike taking the ride. She was held up in the Summer Scorcher and has the class to win this, but she’ll need a touch of luck from barrier 6.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — SANTANOVA ($3.50)
| Selection | Comment |
| SANTANOVA | Thrives at the Ascot 1000m; tactical advantage. |
| CELESTIAL STORM | The "Pike Factor" makes her the danger. |
Framed Market (105%)
CELESTIAL STORM: $2.80
SANTANOVA: $3.20
ROLLING RULER: $4.20
SUNNY HONEY: $9.00
Others: $26.00+
Race 4: WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200m)
LUCKY I AM is the map horse of the day. She is a confirmed leader who rarely runs a bad race. She fought on gallantly for second last start and with the 2kg claim for Chanel Cooper, she carries only 57kg. On a rail-biased day, she might be off and gone before the backmarkers even clear the turn. SNOW PRINCE is the danger; he’s consistent and has been competitive in higher grades than this.
Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) — LUCKY I AM ($4.40)
| Selection | Comment |
| LUCKY I AM | Leads for fun and the rail position is perfect for her. |
| SNOW PRINCE | Solid ratings and a high career placing percentage. |
Framed Market (105%)
LUCKY I AM: $3.80
SNOW PRINCE: $4.20
ROMMEL'S GODDESS: $8.50
SNIPPY WHICH: $9.00
LATER ALLIGATOR: $10.00
Others: $15.00+
Race 5: ANDRICH COUSINS REUNION HANDICAP (1800m)
SOUTHERN FIRETAIL is the most progressive horse in this field. He stepped up to 1600m and was very strong through the line for third in a Grad handicap last start. The 1800m looks ideal now, and with William Pike retaining the ride, he will likely be produced at the 200m to swallow them up. LILLIAN is the danger. She was visually impressive winning over 1500m here and the extra distance won't bother her.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — SOUTHERN FIRETAIL ($2.50)
| Selection | Comment |
| SOUTHERN FIRETAIL | Ready for the 1800m; Pike on is a huge plus. |
| LILLIAN | Proven winner at the track; stable is flying. |
Framed Market (105%)
SOUTHERN FIRETAIL: $2.40
LILLIAN: $3.80
TRIPLE THE CHANT: $4.80
MY HARV: $9.00
CLASSIC IMPACT: $13.00
Others: $31.00+
Comments
Race 6: VT PLUMBING GROUP HANDICAP (2200m)
This is a repeat of the recent 1800m clash where PLANET CASH just got the better of KIMBERLEY ROSE. However, at 2200m, I’m leaning towards the mare. Kimberley Rose meets Planet Cash better at the weights and has been crying out for the staying trip. She’s incredibly consistent and Brad Parnham is riding as well as anyone in the state right now. LATE ARRIVAL is the value if he can reproduce his 1600m form over the longer journey.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — KIMBERLEY ROSE ($3.80)
Framed Market (105%)
KIMBERLEY ROSE: $3.50
PLANET CASH: $4.50
LATE ARRIVAL: $7.00
AUDIO BOY: $8.50
Others: $19.00+
Race 7: HAMLIN BAY THOROUGHBREDS HANDICAP (1400m)
FANCY RED looks the class of the field here. She is a Belmont Oaks winner and while she hasn't won since July, her recent efforts in higher grade suggest she is ready. William Pike takes the ride, which usually means the horse is forward enough to win. DUG ANOTHER HOLE is the danger and a potential betting alternative if the favorite is too short. He is a front-running type who will make his own luck on the speed.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) — FANCY RED ($1.90)
Framed Market (105%)
FANCY RED: $2.00
DUG ANOTHER HOLE: $4.40
ZEPHYRA: $8.50
PLATINUM SHOT: $13.00
Others: $26.00+
Race 8: CYRIL FLOWER STAKES (1200m)
The feature race is a cracker. ALMIGHTY CLASS has always promised the world and today might be the day he delivers. He has a massive motor and is a first-up specialist (2 wins from 5 attempts). William Pike choosing him over some very talented rivals says everything. LONDON'S IMAGE is the danger. She’s a high-quality mare who trials like a jet. If she finds the rail, she’ll be hard to run down.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) — ALMIGHTY CLASS ($2.90)
Bomb: TRIPLE JAY ($20.00) — He’s a lot better than his last start suggests and the $20 is an insult to his ability.
Framed Market (105%)
ALMIGHTY CLASS: $3.00
LONDON'S IMAGE: $3.80
ASPHALT: $6.00
WIND AND THE LION: $7.00
WUBIN GOLD: $11.00
TRIPLE JAY: $18.00
Others: $21.00+
Race 9: CITY OF BELMONT HANDICAP (1600m)
We’ll close the day with ALL GRUNT. He was incredibly unlucky last start when he was crowded and struck by a whip; his late sectionals were those of a horse who should have finished much closer. He’s 4th up now and should be at peak fitness. CASHEL PALACE is the logic. She almost won last start and is a model of consistency. From barrier 2, she will get the run of the race.
Recommended Bet: Bet (1 Unit) — ALL GRUNT ($5.50)
Framed Market (105%)
CASHEL PALACE: $4.20
ALL GRUNT: $4.80
BATTLE COMMANDER: $6.00
STYLISH LORD: $7.00
GREAT FORTUNE: $10.00
Others: $21.00+
Summary of Best Bets
Tucool likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Race 1 - gone e/w the first starter Beyond Measure very astute trainer Paul Hunter from the great southern can remember mid 80’s as a young trainer down Albany often got good results way back then too.
Race 6 - e/w - very rare to find a horse that doesn’t owe you anything but Planet Cash fits the bill…don’t know if can win 3 in a row but if the horse has beaten at previous 2 starts is the favourite ( with weight advantage ) then Planet Cash has to be a hope again. Kimberley Rose and others definite dangers.
They’ve run the quinella previous 2 runs Pinjarra and Ascot midweek to do it a 3rd time on a Saturday meeting would be remarkable.
Race 8 - The Casey stable is flying Chris Parnham a class hoop - gone e/w Wind And Lion.
Now the Riders Bomb bet 8-X had a few sheckles race 7 - e/w 33/1 Macciateau if not today will keep an eye on this Summer Dixon trained runner - one of the best trainers going around with the class of horse has. Nearly won the Jungle Dawn Classic with a 150/1 shot. Nailed on the line in the CB Cox Stakes by the Perth Cup winner and had some long priced winners since.
Chris likes this post.
The best thing though is the AI Bomb tip..love it!!
Sometimes can tell AI articles because they go on and on and on repeating the same thing…a bit like me b-(
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 dislikes this post.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Not sure if it’s the horse or rider but Luke Campbell’s mounts seem to miss the kick a lot more often than other riders
???? Featured Best Bets (Today – Mt Barker)
Best Bet (Win):
• Race 4 – #1 Polyvanova – rated the strongest in the early tip sheet.
Next Best (Win):
• Race 1 – #8 Ziolite – noted as a leading choice in the early races.
Best Value / Value Bet:
• Race 6 – #2 Brave Contender – suggested as the best value selection (likely longer odds) in the feature sequence.
thefalcon, Chris likes this post.