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Melbourne Cup

East Coast Racing
Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
edited October 2012 East Coast Racing
Just thought i better open up the discussion about the possible winner of the Melb Cup. I see many pages open relating to other races and the Melb Cup, but considering we are only 8 days away...here we go.

Any thoughts on if the weights are going to play a major part this year? Considering last year we had two horses on the minimum 51.0kg, where this year the minimum looks likely to be 53.5kg.
7.0kg from bottom to top makes a pretty big difference over 3200m, but down to 5.5kg. These top weights are looking better and better every minute. Without Dunaden's penalty it was 4.5kg for a quality handicap which is not alot considering how much classier Dunaden is compared to horses like...Sanagas for talking sake.

Thoughts? and tips on the big race.
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Comments

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,452 posts
    Your comments about the weights are valid Rogue.

    I've liked Galileo's Choice from early on though the post air trip report wasn't a good one. Important trackwork Tuesday and hopefully back on track. Took the $26 earlier ....very good each way odds.

    Red Cadeaux would have been a great result for me last year and it will go close again particularly as it appears to be even better this season. It has been placed in very good races and deserves to win a major.
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  • BrisburghPhilBrisburghPhil    54 posts
    I too like Galileo's Choice at least as a roughie. Almost faultless in regard to track condition and constitution. He can hurdle and win in good class over 2400m and 3200m. Absolute gun fresh horse too hence no run here. Races on the pace and the formline through Treasure Beach is absolutely first class. Not also he is out of a Sir Ivor dam. Sir Tristram was a son of Sir Ivor and has been so influential for a very long period in regard to our staying ranks.

    Also loathe to ignore Tac De Boistron after his Geelong Cup failure. Possibly a wet tracker but he needed that run and is a gun over the longer distances. Go to the Mick Kent website for a couple of replays of recent wins. He beat home Brigantin & Shahwardi from memory after nearly going through the running rail in the straight. His win at Saint Cloud over 3100m has to be seen to be believed but it was a Heavy surface. Winning margin was 3L but it could have been 15.

    http://mckentracing.com.au/stable/news/12/Tac+de+Boistron+Melbourne+bound
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  • RadmanRadman    1,992 posts
    I still like Tac De Boistron. Failed in the Geelong Cup (Bizet could have won that race) but I'm going to stick with him.
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    SLIPPERGOLDEN said:

    Your comments about the weights are valid Rogue.

    I've liked Galileo's Choice from early on though the post air trip report wasn't a good one. Important trackwork Tuesday and hopefully back on track. Took the $26 earlier ....very good each way odds.

    Red Cadeaux would have been a great result for me last year and it will go close again particularly as it appears to be even better this season. It has been placed in very good races and deserves to win a major.

    I agree with Red Cadeaux, he seems to have improved from last year and his form is solid to suggest he will be in the finish.
    Galileo's Choice though im unsure on, he has only won hurdle races up to 3200m. Never ran in a 3200m flat race, and a bit of a jump up in class from a Leopordstown group 3 2400m race. Not saying if a horse has never raced up to 3200m it cant win, but it seems to be a major jump in class.
    But lightly raced, and Weld is no fool so wouldnt suprise me.
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  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,452 posts
    edited October 2012
    Yes a jump in class but drops nearly 10kg on what it normally carries on the flat and the distance is not an issue. Big chance to complete a cup treble for Weld and at worst I think it will finish in the first three.
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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    Galileos choice will need a very wet track to be any hope for mine unless we get a bog i cant see it winning.
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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    Red cadeaux going as well as last year i can tell u its not the cc winner it could not beat home even though it was ridden pooly in those races cant see it winning also.
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  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    It's always difficult to sort the decent Euro form from the crud.
    I couldn't touch anything that has been running in 2nd tier Gr3 races over there.
    Red Cadeaux & Mt Athos the only 2 I could consider that haven't had a run here.
    Americain & Shahwardi the best lead-up runs imo
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  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,452 posts
    edited October 2012
    Mailman said:

    Galileos choice will need a very wet track to be any hope for mine unless we get a bog i cant see it winning.

    Disagree Postie. Since it;'s first start 3 wins from 4 starts on good to firm tracks.

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  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    Key is to sort the Vinnie Roes/Vintage Crops from the Media Puzzle/Dunadens.

    Without a bog track, the first category are simply too dour to win.

    I think Mount Athos is definitely in the first lot.

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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    Haha slip now that is funny see a good track over in that country i give u a tip would be about a slow 7 here mate so when u see good track its not the same like i said will need a wet track.
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  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,452 posts
    Well aware of the different ratings Mailman but my point was that the conditions were not heavy or bog... not even slow 7s.

    You've told me why my selections can't win so which horse is Mailman's Melbourne Cup moral?
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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    In my view at this stage with races still to be run i think there are maybe only 4 winning hopes in my view will say more after saturday passes and we get final field.
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  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,452 posts
    edited October 2012
    We'll wait for the late mailman. Agree looks as though there will only be a handful of chances.
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    Mailman said:

    In my view at this stage with races still to be run i think there are maybe only 4 winning hopes in my view will say more after saturday passes and we get final field.

    Please explain the 4??

    Storms forecast for Melb Cup day in Melb, could bring a few of these outsider internationals into the frame.

    Anyone got any thoughts on the Godolphin pair? Lost in the moment ran last year and came 6th with 53.0kg. Same weight this year if he gets into the field. Surely $61 is massive overs?
    Also considering Cavalryman beat lost in the moment in its last start which was 3200m and its at $51.
    Someone not telling me something? Might not be all Group 1 races but at least you know they run the trip and should give a good sight.
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  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    americain, dunaden & red cadeux the 3 obvious ones even blind freddy could tip!
    bit of unknown with mounth athos, no doubt the luca cumani factor is the reason its so short in the markets... and Galileo's Choice isin the same boat (D.Weld factor)
    and the only one you'd think would be the CCup winner in Shahwardi should it gain a start....
    best of the aussies, definitely Etheopia! cant see Lights of heaven running a strong 2 miles 2000-2400 is her limit/pet distance
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  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    hash said:

    americain, dunaden & red cadeux the 3 obvious ones even blind freddy could tip!
    bit of unknown with mounth athos, no doubt the luca cumani factor is the reason its so short in the markets... and Galileo's Choice isin the same boat (D.Weld factor)
    and the only one you'd think would be the CCup winner in Shahwardi should it gain a start....
    best of the aussies, definitely Etheopia! cant see Lights of heaven running a strong 2 miles 2000-2400 is her limit/pet distance

    Shahwardi is a good chance, had a run here (which seems to be important) - has form around Brigantin, TDB and Simenon in the UK and France.

    However I'm not sure if the Herbert Power has stood up as a form race - Exceptionally was belted in the Geelong Cup and Ironstein went only average at MV (albeit had it got the run at the 400m, it may have been a different story)

    Blind Freddy may just have the right combination - those three are all the ones to beat - Dunaden with the extra weight, probably the only way that Red Cadeaux and Americain can turn the tables!

    As always will be an awesome race - but still can't believe we can't have 4 emergencies, seriously the TAB need to pull their finger out!

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  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    edited October 2012
    Id suggest that LITM and cavalryman are both very slow horses

    The horses that interest me are:
    Red Cadeaux
    Green Moon

    and thats about it
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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    Vorg red cadeaux is going no were near as good as last year in my view.
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  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    edited October 2012
    tbh i haven't looked at the form of many of the internationals yet. Was it really going much better last year though? Its form leading into last years cup was reflected by its price.

    That said, the extent of my international form is:

    If "joshua tree" "campanologist" or "cavalryman" is in a race its a bad race.

    Im sure things will become a lot clearer after the race lol
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  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    8,452 posts
    Mailman said:

    Vorg red cadeaux is going no were near as good as last year in my view.

    Mailman RC has a win and 5 placings in 6 starts including seconds to Dunedin and St Nicholas Abbey which is better form than last year in my opinion. Interesting to note that it has had nearly a 4 month race break leading up to the cup compared to nearly two months last year.

    Michael Rodd feels Dunlop's charge is stronger this year.

    "He's bigger and wider than he was last year and I could really feel it out on the track," Rodd told www.racingvictoria.net.au.

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  • [DeletedUser][DeletedUser]    0 posts
    Horse may well improve out here that is a hard factor to asses granted but on its runs up there its home splits ect and over all times are not as good in my view finishing possy means nothing how they get there means everything.
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  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Southern Speed out

    Broke down this morning.
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  • ColdyColdy    1,720 posts
    How does Precendence get a run in the race ? Dam joke in my eyes
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  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Coldy said:

    How does Precendence get a run in the race ? Dam joke in my eyes

    Unusual Suspect in that category too.

    Shahwardi should be in the race.

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  • VorgtrafficVorgtraffic    1,755 posts
    Agree on all counts
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  • DustyDusty    69 posts
    edited November 2012
    My first four.

    My Quest for peace
    Kelinni
    Mourayn
    Red Cadeux

    Not in order but I will also box

    Green Moon
    Mount Athos
    Fiorente
    Lights of Heaven

    As rough chances in a first four.
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  • Rogue_GreenRogue_Green    294 posts
    Alright im struggling here with my last selection into my first 4 and tri's. Anyone got any thoughts on Cavalryman? considering he beat 'lost in the moment' home in a 3200m event only a month and a bit ago, and 'Lost in the moment' came 6th in last years cup. Nice weight, good jock and the trainer is dying to win this (not that every other trainer isnt). But we know how much Godolphin would kill for this.

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  • FluffyFluffy    22 posts
    Would love to see Godolphin win it.
    Anyone have any thoughts on Fiorente and My Quest For Peace??
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  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    Cavalryman has lost a leg and too dour, Fiorente I don't like given the small amount of time Gai has had it and that she has whacked blinkers on it.
    My Quest For Peace has to be considered
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