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Ascot Preview, 20th Dec
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Happy Birthday Aaron Rankine Plate - Gary Wright
This does look a race to leave alone as a betting proposition, maybe take your time over lunch and just watch the race. There does appear to be a few promising types engaged going on trial form, but trying to line that form up is nigh on impossible. Possibly London Line could be the best of them after a trial win over Strate Red here on Monday, he hails from the strong Morton stable and has the Wizard on board, he does look well above average. Strate Red had been trialling well before a poor run at her first race start when she was as green as grass, she has since trialled well and has the claim for Lucy Warwick today. Fontaine's War has also been trialling well for the strong Parnham stable and Playful Girl comes from the same trial as Fontaine's War, another nicely bred Balmont filly from the Paula Wagg stable. Certainly not a big betting race though with very little race form on offer to punters here.
2. LONDON LINE - 8. STRATE RED - 1. FONTAINE'S WAR
This does look a race to leave alone as a betting proposition, maybe take your time over lunch and just watch the race. There does appear to be a few promising types engaged going on trial form, but trying to line that form up is nigh on impossible. Possibly London Line could be the best of them after a trial win over Strate Red here on Monday, he hails from the strong Morton stable and has the Wizard on board, he does look well above average. Strate Red had been trialling well before a poor run at her first race start when she was as green as grass, she has since trialled well and has the claim for Lucy Warwick today. Fontaine's War has also been trialling well for the strong Parnham stable and Playful Girl comes from the same trial as Fontaine's War, another nicely bred Balmont filly from the Paula Wagg stable. Certainly not a big betting race though with very little race form on offer to punters here.
2. LONDON LINE - 8. STRATE RED - 1. FONTAINE'S WAR
Comments
Hasnt the decision to start Balmont Girl and Real Love in this race added some interest to what would have been a fizzer if we had only the other five starters, we now have a small but pretty good field to tackle the St Leger. It does look a match between these two for the first prize this afternoon, and they both look to have very good prospects. In the end will go for Balmont Girl who has been in spectacular form this campaign, the only blemish was in the Kingston Town and there were excuses that day, she has probably come back better than ever this campaign, and will get every chance here in the small field, she is really well suited under the set weight conditions of this race today. Real Love is the current Perth Cup favorite and has been racing in wonderful form lately, she was dominant in winning the Queens Cup a couple of weeks ago and it is hard to split these two today, what should happen is a great race up the straight and a close finish. Respondent has been slightly down on his Derby winning form from his last campaign its fair to say, but the rise to 2100 metres does look to suit. Vital Edition is in good form as well and adds something to this race with his recent form.
4. BALMONT GIRL - 5. REAL LOVE - 1. RESPONDENT
SUGGESTED BET - 4. BALMONT GIRL $40
Madassa made a very auspicious debut with a slashing win at Bunbury at his first start, this horse does look to have an abundance of ability and should bounce to the front here and take some running down around the tight Ascot track. The 54kgs will make his job all the more easier to hang on up the straight, probably more to the point the 58 Kgs on the back of his main danger in Castle Retreat may make it just too hard for him to run down Madassa. Hard to fault Castle Retreats form isnt it, but there does appear enormous upside to Madassa and we will go for him to keep up his unblemished record. Star Glitter is another with bright prospects, he meets Castle Retreat better on weights from their last encounter, he will appreciate only carrying 54kgs, and definately looks the other main chance in this race. Ripper Red ran on very well last week, surprised to see him switched back to 1000 metres here, but on that effort may be some place or first four chance for punters today.
3. MADASSA - 1. CASTLE RETREAT - 8. STAR GLITTER
SUGGESTED BET - 3. MADASSA $20 x $30
This is a difficult race, Is Settlers Creek up to this class, can Windswept run 1600 metres, will Dark Delight ever break through after running a string of minor placings, how will Tick Tick Bloom go first up today, all good gallopers but hard to go out on a limb and select one with any confidence. In the end Settlers Creek should be at each way odds, he surprisingly led last start, and they may attempt something similar after that success, he did win easily in the end, and if doing so again may get a breather mid race, there isnt a lot of front end speed in this race. Dark Delight ran on brilliantly last start, normally you would follow up today, but she does have an unenviable record of being a bridesmaid of late. Tick Tick Bloom was in brilliant form over the winter period and returns today, question marks over the fitness first up with this horse possibly, although Pike has decided to ride this afternoon over Dark Delight it seems. Windswept on paper looks to be suspect at the mile, but we will have to reserve judgement until after the race, on his exposed form he looks to have claims in this tough race.
11. SETTLERS CREEK - 3. DARK DELIGHT - 2. TICK TICK BLOOM
SUGGESTED BET - 11. SETTLERS CREEK $15 x $25
A pity about the scratchings of Benito and Pinnici here, it has reduced the field to only five runners and taken a lot of the gloss off the race. You would have thought a speed battle between Travinator and Benito was forthcoming, now Travinator probably gets his own way in front and must come into strong calculations to win on his return to racing. The old Travinator would run them off their legs here, however he isnt quite the same horse as yesteryear is he. Will go for Cool Trade to win today, she has been racing very well without winning this campaign, but probably gets a nice sit on Travinator here and can run over him down the straight. Black Heart Bart is the interesting runner, I thought coming back to 1200 metres was a little strange, now he is back to 1000 metres, but boy is he in good form at present. Shining Knight struggled to pick them up last start with the big weight, and this may happen again today, the scratching of Benito possibly means a little less speed up front and that wont help his cause either. Still a small but good field to contest the Crawford Stakes.
6. COOL TRADE - 3. TRAVINATOR - 4. BLACK HEART BART
SUGGESTED BET - 6. COOL TRADE $40
The last race of the Mares Triple Crown and the big guns are back for another tussle over the mile this time. It does look a race between the top four in the book, all are racing very well at present. It is hard to go past Antique Belle who is racing in such great form at the moment, I think her most impressive win was in the Jungle Mist at the start of this series, she then went on to run a very good third to Watermans Bay in the Scahill, and she comes in here with undeniable claims. Antique Belle probably sits out the back and charges home today. Miss Rose De Lago probably does the opposite and bounces to the front, she may not quite have raced as well this campaign as she has done previously, but she is all class, and will still take some running down if getting it easy up front here. Cant knock the form of Real Chrm either, her last two runs have been ultra impressive, last start she was wide all the way and still kept coming when getting over Need A Lift in the Jungle Dawn, the run of the day no doubt. Need A Lift is also a good novelty chance here as well, another that should drop out and look to storm home over the concluding stages.
2. ANTIQUE BELLE - 1. MISS ROSE DE LAGO - 3. REAL CHARM
SUGGESTED BET - 2. ANTIQUE BELLE $25 x $25
The decision to run Balmont Girl, Real Love and Respondent in the St Leger earlier in the day has really given Elite Belle a very good chance of going out from this preparation on a good note today. I dont suppose Bob Peters could have held hoped for much more from his star mare with a Railway Stakes and Prince Of Wales Stakes win the highlight of her recent efforts. He should get a nice bonus with a win in the time honoured Perth Cup lead up race today. A lot of these gallopers are past their prime its probably fair to say, Elite Belle is certainly not in that category, she should sprint home over the top of these and the rise to 2100 metres shouldnt be any problem. Bass Strait looks the main danger, coming off a couple of good runs in the States big two feature races at his last two starts, the win in the Bob Peters stakes was very good before that. One at odds may be Red Blast, probably not suited with the conditions of this race, but he has been in very nice form for a while now, and didnt get a run at them at his last start at all. Lucciola looks best of the rest, no doubt looking towards the Perth Cup in a fortnight, she is approaching peak fitness now.
11. ELITE BELLE - 7. BASS STRAIT (NZ) - 9. RED BLAST
SUGGESTED BET - 11. ELITE BELLE $50
Dawn Approach looks to be ready to win another race this afternoon, judged on his last effort when a close second to Benito, his form this time in has been excellent, he has a nice cushy draw here in barrier six, and really should be put into a commanding position in running by Shaun Meeres, the Sigley stable has been firing of late and may taste more success today. Iseethingsyoudon't returns here, hasn't been sighted since the Northam Stakes in the Autumn, but did impress with a great trial win last week, running nice time over the 1000 metres, he does have good first up form to recommend him as well. Crown Lawyer lands himself back in a more suitable race that his last start in the Scahill Stakes, so look for him to be at least a good place chance in this final leg of the quaddie. One that disappointed slightly at his first run in the West last week is Longma, however he was well supported and should go a little better this afternoon, if you backed him last week like I did, may pay to give him another chance in this last race.
6. DAWN APPROACH - 1. ISEETHINGSYOUDON'T - 2. CROWN LAWYER
SUGGESTED BET - 6. DAWN APPROACH $25 x $25
All the best in the Summer Scorcher with Benito & Pininci David.
thefalcon likes this post.
RIO, Aussiereds72, H-BOMBER likes this post.
Almost had a crack at Carry the Nation yesterday at 26 dollars bit didnt....now 12s :O
Aussiereds72 likes this post.
RIO likes this post.
and it is a never ending circle.......horse "a" gets a nonsense rating for winning race 'a' which is supposed to be a 90+ but most of them have ratings 85 and less, then horse "b" comes out and donkey licks horse "a" in race 'b', and in turn gets an inflated rating courtesy of the fact it beat one rating much higher than it should have been in the first place.
so now we have 2 with idiotically high ratings, and around and around we go!
depending on how good real love is, then i think mr peters is correct.
who wants to have 80 class horse with a 560 rating!!!??
i certainly hope balmont girl is a fantastic horse, because her rating zoomed last few runs, and if she is not that good and i doubt that she is, then her options have been severely limited.
RIO likes this post.
Balmont Girl was rated as a M91 (last years winner was rated at M98) for winning the Gr3 Asian Beau which is not unreasonable IMO.
She then copped 11 points ( and $200k $-) ) for her 2nd in the Railway. Its hard to argue with a rating of M102 when she has earnings of over $650k.
She has however, as you point out @carey , limited her options to WFA races here unless she wants to carry the grandstand
but i hate letting a good whinge go. =))
Legless, RIO likes this post.
Willy pike to get 4 winners
squid69 likes this post.
One, amongst many but comes immediately to mind when i see the poor thing go round is Talent Show. Should have retired her immediatly to breed becauuse its been a waste of time to race her on, sadly. Black Tycoon may be another one. The ratings system seems to be a kiss of death to a horsses career.
What ever could you mean? :-$
that said, it will be interesting to see where the coin toss lands!
Nevershowsurprise dislikes this post.